Olá amigos and welcome to the only preview that matters for the 2020 UEFA European Football Championship – otherwise known as Euro 2021 (no I will not explain why UEFA are calling it the 2020 version, it’s boring, and yes, I will persist in calling it Euro 2021 until UEFA threatens to sue me). I’ll be brief here because there are 24 teams to cover and I’ve said something about all of them, i.e. I will not be being brief in the rest of this preview. The basic format is that there are 6 groups of 4; every team plays every other team in their group and the top two teams then automatically qualify for the knockout stage; and the four best 3rd place finishers across all groups join them. From there, it’s straight knockouts – one match only, extra time and penalties if needed. In case you need to understand the stakes – the last four World Cups and five of the last six have been won by European nations, so this is barely less prestigious than the big kahuna. Current holders are Portugal from 2016, current World Cup holders are France from 2018. That’s enough background, let’s talk teams:
Group A: Italy, Switzerland, Turkey, Wales
We will begin our tour in Group A which is appropriate as it is likely to be one of the most competitive groups of the lot. Italy and Turkey are very much powers on the rise, Wales aim to replicate their shock semi-final run from the 2016 edition and Switzerland are, this cliché-reliant writer gratefully notes, always a solid middle-of-the-road performer.
Italy’s failure to qualify for the 2018 World Cup was a shock almost as great as that caused by Alaric’s sack of Rome in 410 CE, and infinitely funnier to Australians still sore from the 2006 World Cup round of 16 penaltygate. The Azzuri have spent the past three years rebuilding around a very technical midfield including Serie A champion Nicolò Barella, recent Champion’s League winner Jorginho and recent Champion’s League choker Marco Verratti. These legions have proven they can march in pretty formations and assemble a mean testudo, but can they apply the pointy end of a gladius when it really counts? There is no Carthage in this group, but Hannibal is no longer the greatest threat from across the Alps.
Switzerland have nailed down their role in major tournaments. They qualify, play a very old-fashioned two banks of four – 4-4-2, and are on the funicular home by the end of the round of 16 at the latest. This time though at least one thing will be different: the Swiss have adopted a 3-man defence!!! I know, I know. But once you’ve had some smelling salts waved under your nose and made yourself comfortable on that fainting couch, there’s a lot to like here. Their German-based contingent is young and exciting: Manuel Akanji is a talented defender for Borussia Dortmund despite the club’s up-and-down season, Denis Zakaria is a potentially world-class defensive midfielder, and his club partner Breel Embolo is lighting fast and banging in goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Switzerland will likely stick to form but having bucked one set of expectations, who is to say they cannot at least trouble the quarter final line-up?
If the Swiss are Herr Reliable at tournaments, Turkey epitomise a go-big-or-go-home approach. They’ve only qualified for three of the previous nine major men’s tournaments but got to the semi-finals in two of those. This time round, Turkey are the side posing the eternal question: how often can a team be called a dark horse before they are instead a properly lit horse? Defensively, Çağlar Söyüncü and Merih Demiral are two of Europe’s best young centre-backs and up top, Burak Yilmaz has been phenomenal for shock Ligue 1 winners Lille at the tender age of 36. Turkey’s squad is quite stacked and if they can topple Italy to claim top spot in the group, the other big names might start to look nervously across the Bosporus.
Wales are in a challenging place. Shock semi-finalists in 2016, they are attempting to maintain the core of talented veterans who got them there while bringing through some youth to set them up for future success. Young defenders Ethan Ampadu and Ben Davies show promise but will have to mature quickly to provide a solid foundation for an attack led by Gareth Bale – a one-man wrecking ball whose career has stalled at the perpetual outrage machine that is (Wales, golf,) Real Madrid (in that order). Wales have been dealt a tough (though not insurmountable) hand in Group A so failing to attain the heights reached in 2016 should not be seen as a failure.
Group B: Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Russia
A classic Euro set-up in Group B – one obvious favourite, two potential underdog challengers and a real potato. Just to stir a little paprika in though, Denmark and Russia will have home advantage (including real fans!) during the group stage, so don’t rule out a shock exit for the mighty Belgians.
A 3rd place finish at the 2018 World Cup (including beating England twice) undersells how good that Belgium side was. While they’ve mostly gotten a little older and ricketier in defence, they still boast the magnificent attacking trident of Inter Milan’s Romelu Lukaku, Manchester City’s Kevin De Bruyne and Real Madrid’s Eden Hazard. These three are among the world’s best attacking talent and Brazil in particular will not forget the torching those three handed them in the quarter-finals in Russia. Belgium should get out of this group comfortably and will be one of the favourites to go all the way.
Denmark have historically boasted kits much snazzier than their playing style, but they may just have sneakily assembled a squad good enough to make a go at the knockout stages here. Christian Eriksen’s many creative talents are well known and he’ll be conducting from a very solid base provided by Pierre-Emile Højbjerg in midfield and Champion’s League surprise package Andreas Christiansen in defence. Scoring might prove a little tricky for the Danes but expect them to set a Copenhagen high price on their own goal.
It’s been a while (read never) since Scandinavia’s most reluctant member state attended a major men’s tournament, so Finland have dressed to impress. Sadly, their gorgeous kit is likely to be the only impression they make. Glen Kamara is a talented midfield workhorse and the centre-back pair of Paulus Arajuuri and Joona Toivio will provide an obstacle for anyone. Teemu Pukki is the undoubted star and has been the toast of Norwich for the past three years. But none of the Finns are realistically anywhere near the level of KDB or Eriksen. Still, they are nothing if not organised and the Euros have a decorated history of underdogs grinding out surprise one-goal wins.
Russia have never quite scaled the heights reached internationally by the USSR, and they’ve also relatively underwhelmed on the football field. After a quarter-final run in their home World Cup in 2018, this squad has enough talent to suggest anyone looking to take victory back from St Petersburg should double-check that they’ve prepped for a winter campaign. Up front, Artem Dzyuba returns from a brief, indiscretion-related exile with a point to prove; Aleksander Golovin is a real talent and Antoin Shunin steps into historically big shoes in goal. Fernando Hierro and Napoleon will both attest to how dangerous the Rus are on home turf, but they’ll have to do it on a warm day at Wembley to earn a shot at the trophy.
Group C: Austria, Holland, North Macedonia, Ukraine
Three perennial underachievers and a recently renamed Balkan state walk into a bar. The joke is not finished yet, but the punchline will land if one of Austria, the Netherlands or Ukraine fail to qualify from an eminently escapable group.
Austria are a perplexingly poor international side. With a population of comparable size to Portugal, Belgium or Denmark, and at least as much wealth and prosperity, they’ve no excuse for having qualified for only one previous Euros. Signs may finally be positive for Das Team: alongside world-beater David Alaba from Bayern Munich, they can boast Marcel Sabitzer who shines for RB Leipzig and the towering Saša Kalajdžić of Stuttgart. They’ve also got a gorgeous kit so lovers of football shirt aesthetics will hope that Austria can finally fulfil their potential.
Holland (only really so-called in football contexts these days) may be one of the most romantic teams in Europe but they’ve got a very patchy recent record. They do have a good mix of exceptionally talented youth and a few quality veterans this time round and should therefore be seen as a potential title contender. Stefan de Vrij provides experienced support in defence for young superstar Matthijs de Ligt, while in midfield Frenkie de Jong is the honest-to-god truth. The Oranje can beat anyone on their day, but their worry is back-up depth behind the strong first 11.
North Macedonia prepared for their first ever major men’s tournament in excellent fashion: sticking the boot into a reeling Germany by winning 2-1 in recent World Cup 2022 qualifying. They can also have legitimate hopes of getting out of this group. They’ll rely heavily on a cardre of overseas-based talent: Leeds United’s dynamic winger Ezgjan Alioski, Napoli’s young midfielder Elif Elmas and Genoan veteran striker Goran Pandev. Just getting to this competition is a great achievement for North Macedonia so given the draw, how could we begrudge them for dreaming big?
Now that everyone’s caught onto Turkey as the dark horse for winning this tournament, I’ll keep it fresh by nominating Ukraine as the real surprise packaged of the 2021 Euros. Coached by legendary striker Andriy Shevchenko, their real trump card is their midfield. Oleksander Zinchenko is a fantastic creative talent who is regularly overshadowed by the outrageous collection of superstars he plays alongside at Manchester City; Ruslan Malinovskyi has been scintillating for Atalanta this season; and Taras Stepanenko brings solidity and balance to the three. If they can get out of this group, don’t be surprised to see them uk-rain-e on one of the big favourite’s parade.
Group D: Croatia, Czech Republic, England, Scotland
It’s coming home, it’s coming home, it’s coming, football’s coming home! Ignore whatever China says, it’s the Year of the Lion, England are good again and they’re going to win it all. It doesn’t bloody matter who’s in the group with them, start organising the victory parade and tell Lizzy her Jubilee will have to be put back a year. What’s that you say? An unexpectedly strong Scotland? A very spiky Czech Republic? CROATIA? Maybe we’ll keep the corks in those champagne bottles just for the moment.
Yes, Fate has put England’s World Cup 2018 vanquishers in the room with them here. But while England have almost entirely improved upon their 2018 vintage, Croatia have only gotten older. Still, Luka Modrić remains a generation-defining talent in midfield and Mateo Kovačić is now a Champion’s League winner alongside him, while Ante Rebić and Ivan Perišić are experienced and talented wingers. They may be a little more aged, but this Croatia team are more than a psychological challenge for England; they’re good enough to win this whole shebang if the chips fall their way.
The Czech Republic are that classic mid-tier team – no real superstars but a collection of hardworking players capable of being more than the sum of their parts. Up front Patrik Schick is inconsistent but with very high peaks; Vladimír Coufal is a modern full-back as good in attack as he is in defence; and Tomáš Souček is one of the most complete Premier League midfielders of the past year. It’s a tough group but this team aren’t here to be a Czech box exercise.
England’s impressive semi-final run in World Cup 2018 might be a little misleading (they only beat Tunisia, Panama and Sweden in actual football) but there is no denying the wealth of young attacking talent they’ve developed in the three years since. Jadon Sancho has spent those years bossing the Bundesliga, (soon-to-be Sir) Marcus Rashford spends his days as the UK opposition leader and nights winning games for Manchester United and relative old head Harry Kane seems to get better and better every year. England’s only worry is the hype they’ve managed to generate – previous Three Lions campaigns have wilted under the scrutiny of the world’s simultaneously most hostile and useless press.
1998 was the last major men’s tournament graced by Scotland and this year’s iteration contains significantly more tartan-patterned silk than steel. Che Adams is an exciting recent addition up top, Scott McTominay is the most progressive centre-back in Scottish history and Andy Robertson can lay claim to being the best left-back in the world. It’s going to be very tough for them to get out of this group but they’ve got the tools to go far and the incentive of humiliating the Auld Enemy at home.
Group E: Poland, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden
Ah Group E, the calm before the storm. A tournament group like old Pawpaw used to make: one clear championship contender, one mediocre team with a world-class superstar, one mediocre team with a world-class attitude and a real dud who hope to be a very slippery banana skin.
Poland are all about one man: Robert “Lewan-goal-ski” Lewandowski, the undisputed greatest striker of this generation. He’s won literally everything he can win with Bayern Munich, but with Poland he needs back-up. If the left flank of Maciej Rybus and Piotr Zieliński can get service into the box for big Bobby, Poland are in with a good shout for a quarter-final run.
Slovakia takes the role of underdog here, but they’ve got a few ways to hurt teams who try to speed-vakia past them. Winger Ondrej Duda is plenty experienced from his time in Germany’s top flight and Marik Hamšík is a Napoli legend. At the back, Milan Škriniar will be the leader here that he was for Inter Milan’s title campaign in in Serie A. This team are no slob-akia and they’ll go at the rest of this group with nothing to fear.
Before 2008, Spain were like England – a hot mess. After an interim winning everything between 2008 and 2012, they’re now a hot mess with an identity. It’s 4-3-3, it’s possession play, it’s elegant and sometimes, it’s very dull. Ferran Torres is the potential antidote and genuine cutting edge from the wing. Behind him, watch out for young Pedri attempting to fill the clown sized shoes of Iniesta and Xavi, while Aymeric Laporte is marshalling the defence after jumping ship from France. They’re just a touch under the radar compared to the top three favourites and that suits La Furia Roja very nicely.
The last 15 months have been a hell of a time so it’s comforting to know that some things never change: Sweden will be lining up in a 4-4-2 against the Hell XI on a frozen field in the depths of Hades come Judgement Day. That doesn’t mean they’re unsophisticated though – Victor Lindelof is a very modern centre-back who is comfortable with the ball at his feet and Dejan Kulusevski and Alexander Isak are electrifying talents who have proven themselves at the top level in Italy and Spain respectively. Sweden will be a very well organised group of super troupers who know the name of the game – the winner takes it all.
THE GROUP OF DEATH AKA GROUP F: France, Germany, Hungary, Portugal
Mesdames, Messieurs et Variantes – for your delectation, we arrive at the Group of Death. Each previous group had between zero and two true centrepiece dishes surrounded by a selection of healthy but bland sides – your steamed carrots and green salads and whatnot. Here though, we have three true mains and one deceptively spicy goulash.
France are the full roast pig complete with apple in the mouth and sides glistening with gravy. The World Cup holders have largely improved since their triumph in 2018 and possess a roster more loaded than fries from MEATliquor. Paul Pogba and N’Golo Kanté in midfield create a perfect balance of delicate passing and rich meaty tackling and in attack, Kylian Mbappé is a full cake, icing and cherry. They’re the favourites for a reason but not since Spain in 2012 has any team managed to go back-to-back in major tournaments.
Germany are more of an extravagant hot dog and chips – but once you get through all the sauce and fried onions, you realise the actual bratwurst is… underwhelming. Also you now have indigestion. The serial tournament late-stage experts (four semi-finals, two runners up and one World Cup win in the 8 major tournaments preceding 2018) have had a rough three years. They have about 80% of an outstanding team – Manuel Neuer in goal remains astonishing, İlkay Gündoğan is a midfield jack-of-all-trades, master-of-at-least-half-trades and Thomas Müller is still Thomas Müller. But, to return to our analogy, the small bratwurst is their lack of striker to seal the deals set up by their creative midfield and they have absolutely no vegetables – sorry, full-backs – which in the modern game, is just not going to cut the mustard. The 2014 World Cup winners might find themselves packing their bags early again.
The Hungary diner might overlook the Magyarok, but don’t be a stew dodger. Péter Gulásci and Willi Orbán form a steady base for club side RB Leipzig and will do so here, while Ádám Szalai can be a target man and creator in attack. Hungary’s strength is their tactical discipline – watch for the team to cluster on one side of the pitch to draw opponents across before rapidly switching to their free wing-back on the opposite flank. France and Portugal will both have to face Hungary in the oven of the Puskás Aréna so while they lack obvious star power, their group rivals Buda look out or they’ll find more than a Pest in Hungary.
Current Euro holders Portugal (if you’re keeping count, that’s the winners of the last three major men’s tournaments in this group) may appear to be a simple caldeirada fish stew, but have a taste and you’ll find a delicious and wholesome feast. There are simply too many outstanding players to name here so let’s just focus on the three who won the Premier League with Manchester City this season. João Cancelo is a proper full-back who can do a bit of everything – the potato of the dish. Rúben Dias was a gamble from Benfica but has proven exceptional as the meaty centre-back and Bernado Silva is pure sauce. Portugal have everything to retain their European crown if they can just elbow their way out of this groaning table of a group.
And that’s all she wrote for now folks. The tournament kicks off Friday with Italy v Turkey and will run until 11 July to fulfil all your international football needs. Tune in when you can, particularly when the group games are done and we’re into the real deal. There’s one final bit of admin to do and I can let you go:
The It’s-coming-home-ometer rating: 6 topless lads with face paintings of St George’s flag out of 10